Brazilian economist Susana Cordeiro was in Lima for less than 24 hours, but she made time in her schedule to meet with El Comercio last Friday. The Vice President for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank, who has led the region since September 2025, commented on the meeting she held with the president-elect, Keiko Fujimori.
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— Could you mention three economic risks for Latin America this year?
One of the challenges is fiscal consolidation and continuing on the path of macroeconomic stability. That is a primary area of priority in the region. Another issue that I believe could potentially affect a significant group of countries is the arrival of El Niño and the ways in which this could have economic and fiscal implications in terms of capital stock loss. That is, loss in damages and losses in infrastructure. Another challenge for the region is productivity and facilitating the growth of key sectors.
— How much does the fiscal issue worry you?
If we look at El Niño, the key problem for Peru is not just financing. In fact, I believe the country will access financing. Today (Friday) I discussed this with the president-elect in a very productive meeting. We had an excellent conversation about the potential support of the World Bank to the government over the next five years, both for the public and private sectors through IFC – the World Bank Group arm that works with the private sector in developing countries – and MIGA (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency). Overall, we talked about ways we can support as the World Bank Group.
— So, you talked about short-term plans – because of El Niño – and long-term plans.
El Niño was, of course, one of the priorities we discussed. The government has access to contingent financing from the World Bank. But beyond financing and this quick liquidity we can provide when disasters occur, there is a need to move from reacting to anticipating and managing these climate risks.
— We have not been very good at that.
There is much to improve in terms of strengthening preparedness, improving forecasts, early warning systems, and communication systems with the population.
— And also, the work between the public and private sectors.
Exactly, how to build more resilient infrastructure by attracting private sector investment. Also, improving water security and supporting agriculture to be more climate-resilient and smart and able to withstand impacts. Overall, it is about having more institutional capacity. I could perceive that the incoming administration is very focused on that priority. They are being very executive and systematic when taking stock of what has been done and what remains to be done in the future, and prioritizing those key areas where they can act in the first 90 days. I have been impressed by Mrs. Fujimori’s concern, prioritization capacity, and preparation to make a rigorous diagnosis of what has been done and identify priorities where it is possible to act.
— For the long term, did you name key sectors?
In the long term, what was very interesting in the conversation was how to make the government, the State, work.
Mrs. Fujimori conveyed to us that they have been developing a series of indicators in all ministries to track their performance and monitor their progress; it is an area of government effectiveness. This is an area the World Bank can support by bringing good practices from other parts of the world. This would be particularly important here, given the challenges the public service has faced in recent years.
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— After this meeting, is there any concrete alliance you can share?
We have talked about this large and important area of technical assistance that the World Bank would provide and potential financing to a variety of sectors, which includes, for example, projects related to having quality water.
— Agriculture?
Health and general infrastructure. Again, the guideline is to attract the private sector. That is part of our approach as a Group. We want to be very clear about where the public sector should be and where the private sector can play a role. We want to be where there are market failures and where our participation is justified. We do not want to displace the private sector. In fact, we want to encourage private investment as much as possible.
— Is there a real possibility or likelihood of improving this practically in the next five years?
There are many ways to improve. That is part of the World Bank’s global employment and growth agenda. Our current president, Ajay Banga, has largely focused our mission on employment and growth. And here three pillars are fundamental. One is creating the enabling environment for private investments and businesses. And there, the rule of law is essential to create a level playing field for investment, and thus think about fiscal and macroeconomic stability more broadly. The second pillar is critical infrastructure. We are talking about roads, ports, airports. This also has a human side in health, education, and social protection. The last pillar lies in being able to attract and mobilize private capital for key sectors. If you think about how to calibrate this strategy for Peru, let’s say it is a country with solid macroeconomic fundamentals with a fiscal deficit of 1.3% of GDP as of June 2026.
— The deficit is a cause for concern due to the fiscal pressures that El Niño entails or the fiscal pressures that naturally arise for a new government. Do you see any risk in that regard?
The country has very solid macroeconomic fundamentals and a very solid base to rely on. Few economies in Latin America have an investment-grade rating backed by these solid macroeconomic fundamentals of low public debt, considerable reserves, a credible central bank, and a really well-capitalized financial sector. The risks faced by an incoming administration are mostly exogenous risks such as lower prices for major commodity exports like copper and gold. Also, as we mentioned, there is El Niño and how a potential loss in capital stock can translate into economic and fiscal difficulties, and also how that event could affect certain agricultural products, which are among the country’s main exports. It is remarkable how demand has grown, more than 27% in the last 25 years.
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— Agro-exports have consolidated as the second most important export sector in Peru, after mining.
Exactly. Based on those fundamentals, effective and executive management and transition of the potential shock – such as the natural disaster – would send a strong signal to the market to increase investment in the country. That will be key to managing these downside risks.
— What does Peru need to move from moderate growth to growth that generates well-being?
Peru has not reduced the level of poverty, as it was among the handful of countries in the region that have not reduced poverty levels and still maintain pre-pandemic poverty levels. This is mainly due to the slow growth that has been persistent over the last ten years – around 2.5%. In the last couple of years, there has been a recovery in private investment and this is mainly due to commodity prices. However, this has not translated into higher growth due to political instability. Today there is a new moment in the country; this recovery can rely on solid fundamentals and thus boost growth. But for that to happen, concerted efforts will have to be made to eliminate bottlenecks in structural growth sectors, such as agribusiness and mining.
— What opportunities do you see for Peru in this new chapter?
Peru is one of the countries in the region with the highest informality.
More than 70%.
(Nods). I think improving the business environment is very important.
— Through a tax system reform?
We need to create an environment that removes bottlenecks so that companies can grow and attract private investment, so that there are better quality jobs and companies can pay taxes. It is the only way to have a productive and more dynamic business fabric in the economy. Mining is a good example of how that has not happened with prolonged permits (to operate). The level of bureaucracy and regulation has really led to an expansion of informality. Approximately half of gold exports come from illegal mining.
— That is a huge problem right now; it is associated with violence and extortion. And not only in Peru, it is a regional problem.
It is a huge challenge throughout the region, but the solution is not simply deregulation. Solutions and technical approaches must be provided to selectively remove some of these bottlenecks throughout mining. The same approach must be considered for other sectors. Technical expertise must be used and work through the government so that we can find the smartest possible regulation that can attract private investments to these sectors.
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