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New images allow us to gauge the damage that Iran has managed to inflict on US facilities in the Middle East. Analysts consulted by El Comercio agree that the attacks represent tactical successes for Tehran, but not necessarily a strategic vulnerability for the United States
The war with Iran has left the United States with “strategic shortages” of ammunition. Colonel Víctor Pimentel Roque warns that the real challenge will be to replenish its arsenals before facing a new high-intensity conflict and argues that technological superiority is not enough if there is no industrial capacity to replace weapons at the rate they are consumed.
The Houthis managed to “shoot down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet conducting hostile operations (…) in the airspace of Marib province, with a locally made surface-to-air missile,” said their military spokesman, Yahya Saree
The advance of the Houthis in Bab el-Mandeb threatens to turn another strategic point in the Middle East into a hotspot of global tension. Analyst Andrés Gómez de la Torre warns that Trump’s refusal to intervene directly could encourage the group to move towards closing the strait, as well as a strong military response from Saudi Arabia
Iran warned the United States that “the rules of the game have changed” and threatened harsher responses to new attacks. International analyst Carlos Novoa told El Comercio that the current scenario could lead to a low-intensity war with no end, where bombings and reprisals “can be maintained indefinitely” without necessarily leading to a new large-scale conflict
“Americans must have understood that the era of proportional responses is over,” declared Mohamad Baqer Qalibaf, the chief Iranian negotiator,
Iran would be considering attacks against targets in Europe if Donald Trump escalates the war. For analyst Andrés Gómez de la Torre, Tehran seeks to keep open the possibility of extending the conflict as a tool of pressure and deterrence: “all options are on the table”
The United States has opened a corridor in the Strait of Hormuz that allows millions of barrels of oil to be exported despite Iranian attacks. For analysts consulted by El Comercio, the threat from Iran persists and the real challenge will be to determine whether the economic benefits outweigh the cost of sustaining the complex operation
Trump’s threat against Oman reveals, according to analyst Carlos Novoa, his frustration over the stalemate in negotiations with Iran and the loss of control over the Strait of Hormuz, a situation he considers a sign of “desperation”
“The negotiations never got underway because the United States just a few weeks after signing the memorandum of understanding committed flagrant and widespread violations of its text, said the spokesperson of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ismail Bagaei