Last Wednesday, the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, stated that the United Kingdom and France were “playing with fire” by providing Ukraine with technology related to long-range missiles.
Days earlier, the United Kingdom had authorized the transfer to Ukraine of classified technical information on the British components of the long-range cruise missile Storm Shadow, so that Kiev can manufacture it.
The Storm Shadow is produced by the United Kingdom and France. Before London’s decision was known, Paris had already given the green light to Ukraine to manufacture them.
The most serious part of Zakharova’s warning was when she said that British military facilities and equipment in Ukraine and outside that country could become targets if Ukrainian attacks against Russian territory with British weapons continue.
That was not all. On August 25, former Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Kremlin-linked advisor, Andrei Fedorov, warned that British factories producing drones for Ukraine could become targets of a possible Russian “semi-military” action.
Russia’s warnings against the United Kingdom coincided with another much more discreet move from Washington. On Tuesday, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise visit to Moscow.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Ratcliffe’s trip took place after U.S. intelligence detected signs that Russia might attempt to test NATO’s resolve through a limited military action against one of its members, probably a Baltic country.
Ratcliffe is said to have traveled precisely to convey a warning to Russian officials against any attack on a NATO country.
The current escalation with the United Kingdom occurs in a context of repeated Russian nuclear signals throughout 2026, but without stating that there is a Russian threat of a nuclear attack against that European country.
Additionally, NATO said on Sunday that it does not see an imminent threat of a direct Russian attack, although it does observe an increase in Russian hybrid activities in Europe.
It is most likely that Russia will resort to hybrid warfare against the United Kingdom
International analyst Francisco Belaunde Matossian believes that a direct military attack against British territory or another Western NATO country remains unlikely. But he explains that Russia could opt for hybrid warfare actions, such as sabotage or covert operations.
He mentions recent operations attributed to Russia in Europe as examples, although he emphasizes that these types of actions would be more predictable than an open military attack.
However, Belaunde does not rule out that Moscow might try to test NATO on its eastern flank. “There could be, as speculated, eventually an attack on the Baltic countries,” he points out.
For Belaunde, one of the greatest risks is not only in Russia’s military capabilities but in the possibility that Putin makes decisions that are difficult to anticipate.
“Putin, like several of these dictators, isolates himself completely, receives distorted information because no one dares to tell him the truth… They lose a kind of relationship with the truth and can sometimes become unpredictable,” he warns.
Regarding the British authorization for Ukraine to access classified technology and manufacture Storm Shadow missiles, Belaunde indicates that it is a new level of London’s commitment to Kiev.
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For Andrés Gómez de la Torre, a specialist in defense and intelligence issues, Russia’s warning to the United Kingdom is part of a strategy of “permanent escalations” by Moscow against NATO and, particularly, against London.
“The rivalry between NATO and Russia is not new and not so covert,” he points out. He recalls that the United Kingdom was one of the first countries to militarily support Ukraine after the start of the Russian invasion in February 2002 and that, since then, it has maintained sustained support for the government of Volodymyr Zelensky.
Gómez de la Torre indicates that one of Moscow’s main concerns is related to the range of the Storm Shadow.
“The problem with the Storm Shadow is the range, because it can penetrate airspace and, consequently, Russian territory deeply,” he explains.
The analyst considers it significant that Moscow’s response was initially not from the Ministry of Defense but from the Foreign Ministry.
The significance of the CIA director’s trip to Moscow
Regarding the surprise visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow, Gómez de la Torre says it should be interpreted in a context where diplomatic channels face greater difficulties.
“When diplomacy and foreign ministries are overwhelmed or fail, intelligence services coordinate and assume the role of interlocutors to talk, resolve, and communicate the positions of the parties,” he explains.
According to the analyst, Ratcliffe’s trip had two main objectives: to explore ways to end the war in Ukraine and to persuade Russia not to carry out any attack against a NATO country that could trigger the alliance’s collective response mechanisms.
“When intelligence services intervene, it is because the circumstances, particularly military ones, have already surpassed the foreign ministries,” he emphasizes.
Gómez de la Torre considers Ratcliffe’s visit an indicator that should be closely watched. He recalls that his predecessor William Burns traveled to Russia in November 2021, before the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, in a last attempt by Washington to dissuade Moscow from launching the military operation.
Belaunde maintains that the trip by the head of the main U.S. intelligence agency is a signal that deserves attention.
“It does not happen often. The last time a CIA chief went to Moscow was shortly before the 2022 invasion,” he recalls.
He explains that these types of trips can be used to convey messages that are not convenient to send through usual diplomatic channels.
Although President Donald Trump and Russian officials have downplayed the trip publicly, Belaunde points out that various analyses suggest that Ratcliffe may have delivered a warning to Putin not to attack a NATO member country.
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“It is interpreted as a delicate situation, anyway,” he states.
