The order and clarity of the direction taken by the MEF is undeniable. Beyond the announcements – and whether you agree, dear reader, with all or some of them – the press conference given by Elmer Cuba, the new head of the ministry, allows us to discern the path it will take in the coming months.
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Cuba was blunt about El Niño and the adjustment of state spending. To gather the approximately S/2.5 billion that will be allocated to controlling El Niño, cuts will be necessary. Where? In state bureaucracy, and especially in fee-based hiring. A surely unpopular alternative, but necessary, since current spending is out of control.
The question is how much room the MEF will have to maneuver politically on so many fronts. Added to this is Petro-Perú, which on Thursday, amid various pressures, changed its board of directors. And, the bill of powers project that found several detractors after its leak, especially due to the labor and tax aspects.
No change can happen if the entire Cabinet is not aligned with the same causes and if Congress is not willing to form alliances. What would happen if the presidency of the Economy Commission falls into the hands of the opposition? There are several topics to negotiate, and we must not lose sight that the Public Budget Bill must be submitted to Congress no later than August 30, along with the Debt and Financial Balance Bills. According to Minister Cuba, the fronts with the most resources will be citizen security and social policies. For this, figures in other functions and ministries will have to be adjusted.
The MEF does not close any door, neither on the labor-tax issue, nor on holidays, nor even on the RMV, whose application is left in the hands of the National Labor Council and the economic context of the coming months. That pragmatism can be a virtue if it allows building the necessary consensus, but it can also become a source of indecision if prolonged too long. The country needs the MEF to combine both qualities without one canceling the other: openness to negotiate with Congress and the private sector, and firmness not to yield to populist pressures that already threaten public accounts. Minister Cuba has the credentials to achieve this; the challenge will be to maneuver sustainably.
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