The real estate market in Metropolitan Lima continues to show a solid performance in the sale of new homes, driven by the recovery of mortgage credit and the financing of housing programs, according to Guido Valdivia, executive vice president of the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco), during the presentation of Construction Economic Report (IEC) No. 101, prepared by the business association.
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However, this growth faces an increasingly evident concern: the sustained reduction in the supply of new real estate projects, a situation that could translate into an increase in housing prices during the coming months.
According to the study, the launch of new housing projects decreased by 16.5% during the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period of the previous year. The largest drops were recorded in Lima Top (-46.3%) and Lima Centro (-44.4%), while Lima Moderna barely achieved a growth of 3.4%.
Likewise, at the end of the first quarter of the year, there were 1,017 projects with available supply in Metropolitan Lima, a figure that represents a decrease of 7.6% compared to the first quarter of 2025 and 2.6% compared to the previous quarter.
This combination of sustained demand and a lower incorporation of new projects is already generating signs of tension in the real estate market. According to the report, Lima Top is currently below the levels considered equilibrium between supply and sales, while Lima Moderna is rapidly approaching a similar situation.
If this trend continues, the market could face a reduction in sales not due to a lack of buyer interest, but due to the insufficient availability of new homes, a product of urban planning restrictions and difficulties in managing real estate development.
In contrast, home sales continue to grow significantly in all market segments. Particularly, the Mivivienda and non-social housing segments have maintained an uninterrupted positive trend since the third quarter of 2023. During the presentation of the study, Valdivia stated that the risk of a housing shortage has ceased to be a possibility and has become a reality.
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“It is no longer a risk. It is a reality. As we have seen, there is less supply, especially in Lima Top and also in Lima Moderna. This is a chronicle of an announced contraction that we have been warning about for several years,” he affirmed.
The representative of Capeco pointed out that part of this situation responds to regulatory changes that have restricted the development of certain housing projects, especially those aimed at middle sectors that previously qualified as social housing.
As he explained, these modifications have generated contradictions in housing policy, because while greater participation of private banking in housing financing is promoted, the conditions that allowed the development of accessible projects for young professionals and middle-income families are limited.
Valdivia also warned that municipal obstacles and urban planning restrictions in various districts of Lima are hindering the incorporation of new real estate supply. This situation, he indicated, ends up expelling potential buyers to other districts and restricting opportunities to access housing near their workplaces or families.
Finally, Capeco warned that, if these conditions are not reversed, the reduction in supply could deepen in the coming months, especially in a context marked by political and economic uncertainty. The association considered it necessary to adopt measures that allow the pace of housing project development to be recovered and to ensure that the growing demand finds an adequate response in the market, thus avoiding additional pressures on housing prices.
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